No indicator matters permanently. What matters is which series the relevant central bank has identified as decisive for its next decision, and how far the release deviates from consensus.

Categories

  • Price data. Consumer and producer price measures, and the core versions that strip volatile components.
  • Labour data. Employment change, unemployment rate, participation and wage growth.
  • Activity data. Gross domestic product, purchasing-manager surveys, retail sales, industrial production.
  • External balances. Trade and current-account positions, which affect structural demand for a currency.
  • Sentiment and forward-looking surveys. Useful as leading indicators, weaker as confirmation.

Revisions and definitions

Many series are revised after first publication, and definitions differ between countries. Comparing headline numbers across jurisdictions without checking methodology is a common source of error. Release calendars, definitions and revision histories are published by national statistical agencies and central banks.

How AX covers data

Where this publication references a data point, it states the series, the reporting period, the publishing agency and the release date. A figure without those four attributes is not usable as evidence.